Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 225, so I decided to peg the financial stocks I wrote about investing in as a pool. We are often accused of bragging on the good days and having memory loss on the bad so I wanted to be transparent and forthright on the downside.
To my surprise the financial stock pool is actually up 9.96% on average. Six stocks increased in value, two were down and two stocks were even money. The big winner was MBIA Inc (NYSE: MBI) up over 68%!
In the same time frame the DJIA has gone from 11,397.56 to 11,431.43 (even) and the S&P has gone from 1263.2 to 1266.06 last night, for basically no change either.
The market is rebounding as I write so I expect the news is even better. Although, this pool of stocks beat the market so far in the short run, I hope to track this group for a year, or at least until Major League Baseball's spring training opens in 2009.
E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) was fined $1 million by the Securities and Exchange Commission for failing to comply with federal anti-money laundering laws. The company, which did not admit guilt in the enforcement action, will pay an even steeper price over the long term, which is a good reason to avoid the company's stock.
What many investors and members of the press forget about government fines is that the dollar amount does not tell the full story. E*Trade will likely spend far more than $1 million upgrading its computer systems after it failed to verify the identities of more than 65,000 of its customers as required by SEC rules and the USA Patriot Act. Moreover, the company could face countless legal headaches from people whose stolen identities may have been used to set up phony E*Trade accounts. Let's not forget about the money laundering cases involving drug dealers and terrorists whose funding sources were not properly verified because of E*Trade.
The SEC, for one, has found no excuse for E*Trade's inaction to correct the problem, which it knew about for years.
After the market closed last night, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounding from Monday's notable drop and ending the trading day at 11,397.56, up 266.48 (+2.39%), I posted Serious Money: 10 finance stocks as the market bounces. This is the follow-up post listing the full pool of speculative stocks that as a group I believe will beat the overall market in the next 12 months.
The prediction business is thankless and the speculative business is even worse; it is often painful. I usually refrain from this activity but today I play the contrarian in a Sir John Templeton (RIP) sort of way, jumping into the stock market's worst performing sector with both feet. I believe the market is at or near a bottom and this summer is the time to buy.
Looking for a break in the clouds, yesterday I started choosing ten stocks knowing that three or four may go to zero, a few more will survive with modest gains, and three or four will rise, not returning to their old glory soon but more than covering the ones that fail. The first four picks have been bleeding all over Wall Street for a year now and the blood-letting is not done yet.
Initially I was looking for stocks that had fallen at least 70%. After reviewing my figures, I have compromised and changed that to 63% so that I could include some of the major companies like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) that are broadly held and have strong reader interest. Prices are as of July 29, 2008.
Talk about an interesting day for E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC). The broker, a competitor of TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) and Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW), reported Q2 earnings on Tuesday after the market closed. E*Trade saw its stock close up on the day by almost 11% on better-than-average volume ahead of the press release. Then, after hours, the stock was down over 15% as investors digested the data. It was a wild ride indeed, and I'm glad I wasn't on it.
E*Trade saw its total net revenue decrease by 20% to around $532 million. The loss per share came in at 19 cents. According to this Reuters article, Wall Street was hoping the loss would only be 14 cents per share.
E*Trade isn't out of the woods yet, and I think it'll be a while before it fully turns itself around and recovers from the financial crisis it's been suffering. In fact, the release mentioned how the broker lost value on investments in preferred equities of Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM) and Federal Home Loan Mortgage (NYSE: FRE) in July and that the liquidation of the investments will impact the third quarter. Yeah, I'm sure shareholders of E*Trade love to hear the names Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac thrown around in the earnings report. They're sure to warm the heart.
At one time, I thought E*Trade was worth entering, and it obviously might have been worth trading ahead of the earnings (if you were quick to get out before the after-hours, that is). Now, however, I'm reticent to put any new money to work in the financial sector. It's going to be a while before the financial malaise finally lifts. Since E*Trade is still losing a lot of money and missing estimates, I see no reason to allocate any investment funds here. The stock has become too speculative, and if you want to speculate, I'm sure you can find safer sectors to place some bets.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Yesterday could have been the end of the NBA season, but the Los Angeles Lakers forced a game six in Boston -- not so much by winning; more by having a "refuse to lose" finish that they could not muster before. I am quite sure David Stern is fine with that outcome. ESPN, and ABC television owned by Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) must be ecstatic. The NBA officials will earn another paycheck, and the sponsors? They are praying for a game seven for sure!
Yesterday, prior to the game, I posted Sunday Funnies: Lakers/Celtics -- NBA business success, and dedicated much of the word flow to all the clamoring about NBA officiating and reasons why the game had issues. Today is all the about the cash.
While the Super Bowl is the hugest of events, an NBA Finals is a saga with twists and turns, and this one so far has had many. The Lakers face insurmountable odds of winning two games in Boston so they have been as much as counted out already.
Laker star and NBA Most Valuable Player Kobe Bryant has posed the most interesting perspective on the challenge his team faces that I can ever remember. He said, prior to the game, that since he did not go to college he viewed his situation like making the Elite Eight referring to Division I college basketball March Madness. He said, you just have to feel grateful you are there and know that you have to win three games to win the tournament.